Stat.Nonparametric.Moment­Problems.Bounded­Outcome­Envelope

Sharp bounded-outcome residual envelopes: quartic root selection, admissible laws, upper bounds, and extremal three-point attainment.

Defs 5 core · 3 supporting This file starts the bounded-outcome branch of MomentProblems. ★ rhoEnvelope_pos

Bounded-outcome residual envelope: definitions

This file starts the bounded-outcome branch of MomentProblems. It defines the sharp envelope ρ(v) of the residual of on span{1, y} over probability measures on [0,1] with fixed second moment .

* maximizingRoot v — the unique interior root μᵥ ∈ (v², v) of the FOC quartic (from interior_quartic_exists), extracted by choice. * rhoEnvelope v := momentEnvelope μᵥ (v²) — the closed-form envelope value ρ(v). * Admissible v μμ is a probability measure a.e. supported in [0,1] with ∫ y² ∂μ = v². * residualSet v — the set of realized residuals { l2ResidualQuadratic μ | Admissible v μ }, whose supremum the main file shows equals rhoEnvelope v.

def maximizingRoot reviewed
Causalean.Stat.MomentProblems.BoundedOutcomeEnvelope

For a real number vv, the selected maximizing root is the unique root in (v2,v)(v^2,v) of the envelope first-order quartic when 0<v<10<v<1, and is 00 otherwise.

Definition (Lean source)
v :
maximizingRoot v :
if h : 0 < v ∧ v < 1 then (interior_quartic_exists v h.1 h.2).choose else 0
Causalean.Stat.MomentProblems.BoundedOutcomeEnvelope.maximizingRoot · Causalean/Stat/Nonparametric/MomentProblems/BoundedOutcomeEnvelope/Defs.lean:32
def rhoEnvelope reviewed
Causalean.Stat.MomentProblems.BoundedOutcomeEnvelope

For a real number vv, the measure-level residual envelope is (μvv2)(v2μv2)/(4μv(1μv))(\mu_v-v^2)(v^2-\mu_v^2)/(4\mu_v(1-\mu_v)), where μv\mu_v is the selected maximizing root at second moment v2v^2.

Definition (Lean source)
v :
rhoEnvelope v :
Causalean.Stat.MomentProblems.BoundedOutcomeEnvelope.rhoEnvelope · Causalean/Stat/Nonparametric/MomentProblems/BoundedOutcomeEnvelope/Defs.lean:53
theorem rhoEnvelope_pos reviewed
Causalean.Stat.MomentProblems.BoundedOutcomeEnvelope

The envelope value ρ(v) is strictly positive for v strictly between 0 and 1: momentEnvelope μᵥ (v²) = (μᵥ − v²)(v² − μᵥ²) / (4 μᵥ (1 − μᵥ)) has all four factors positive when μᵥ ∈ (v², v).

Formal statement
v :
hv0 :
0 < v
hv1 :
v < 1
Proof (Lean source)
theorem rhoEnvelope_pos (v : ℝ) (hv0 : 0 < v) (hv1 : v < 1) : 0 < rhoEnvelope v := by have hmem := maximizingRoot_mem v hv0 hv1 set u := maximizingRoot v with hu have h1 : v ^ 2 < u := hmem.1 have h2 : u < v := hmem.2 have hu0 : 0 < u := lt_trans (by positivity) h1 have hu1 : u < 1 := lt_trans h2 hv1 have hnum1 : 0 < u - v ^ 2 := by linarith have hnum2 : 0 < v ^ 2 - u ^ 2 := by nlinarith have hden : 0 < 4 * u * (1 - u) := by nlinarith rw [rhoEnvelope, momentEnvelope] positivity
Causalean.Stat.MomentProblems.BoundedOutcomeEnvelope.rhoEnvelope_pos · Causalean/Stat/Nonparametric/MomentProblems/BoundedOutcomeEnvelope/Defs.lean:61 · uses rhoEnvelope
structure Admissible reviewed
Causalean.Stat.MomentProblems.BoundedOutcomeEnvelope

μ is admissible for the envelope at level v: a probability measure a.e. supported in [0,1] with second moment ∫ y² ∂μ = v². These are exactly the laws over which the residual l2ResidualQuadratic is maximized to give ρ(v).

Definition (Lean source)
v :
μ :
isProb :

μ is a probability measure.

supp :
∀ᵐ y ∂μ, y ∈ Icc (0 : ℝ) 1

μ is a.e. supported in [0,1].

moment2 :
∫ y, y ^ 2 ∂μ = v ^ 2

μ has second moment .

Causalean.Stat.MomentProblems.BoundedOutcomeEnvelope.Admissible · Causalean/Stat/Nonparametric/MomentProblems/BoundedOutcomeEnvelope/Defs.lean:77
def residualSet reviewed
Causalean.Stat.MomentProblems.BoundedOutcomeEnvelope

For a real number vv, the set of residual values realized by admissible laws contains exactly the quadratic least-squares residuals of probability measures that are almost surely supported on [0,1][0,1] and have second moment v2v^2.

Definition (Lean source)
v :
residualSet v :
Set
{r | ∃ μ : Measure ℝ, Admissible v μ ∧ r = l2ResidualQuadratic μ}
Causalean.Stat.MomentProblems.BoundedOutcomeEnvelope.residualSet · Causalean/Stat/Nonparametric/MomentProblems/BoundedOutcomeEnvelope/Defs.lean:88
3 supporting declarations (lemmas, instances)
Attainment 6 core · 11 supporting This file proves the lower-bound/attainment half of the bounded-outcome residual envelope. ★ rho_envelope_attained

Attainment for the bounded-outcome residual envelope

This file proves the lower-bound/attainment half of the bounded-outcome residual envelope. The measure-level supremum ρ(v) is attained by an explicit three-point law on {0, xᵥ, 1}, where xᵥ = extremalMid μᵥ (v²) is the interior support point of the extremal law whose first moment is the maximizing root μᵥ = maximizingRoot v.

The weights w₀, w₁, w₂ are the unique solution of the three linear moment constraints w₀ + w₁ + w₂ = 1, w₁ xᵥ + w₂ = μᵥ, w₁ xᵥ² + w₂ = v², namely

w₁ = (μᵥ − v²) / (xᵥ (1 − xᵥ)), w₂ = (v² − μᵥ xᵥ) / (1 − xᵥ), w₀ = 1 − w₁ − w₂.

For μᵥ ∈ (v², v) these are nonnegative and xᵥ ∈ (0,1), so extremalMeasure v is a probability measure supported in [0,1]. Its raw moments are mₖ = w₁ xᵥᵏ + w₂ (k ≥ 1), which match the extremal moments (μᵥ, v², extremalM3 μᵥ (v²), extremalM4 μᵥ (v²)); hence by MomentAlgebra.extremalResidual_eq_envelope its residual equals momentEnvelope μᵥ (v²) = ρ(v).

def extremalSupp reviewed
Causalean.Stat.MomentProblems.BoundedOutcomeEnvelope

For a real number vv, the interior support point of the extremal three-point law is (μv22μvv2+v2)/(2μv(1μv))(\mu_v^2-2\mu_vv^2+v^2)/(2\mu_v(1-\mu_v)), where μv\mu_v is the selected maximizing first moment at second moment v2v^2.

Definition (Lean source)
v :
extremalSupp v :
Causalean.Stat.MomentProblems.BoundedOutcomeEnvelope.extremalSupp · Causalean/Stat/Nonparametric/MomentProblems/BoundedOutcomeEnvelope/Attainment.lean:34
def extremalW1 reviewed
Causalean.Stat.MomentProblems.BoundedOutcomeEnvelope

For a real number vv, the weight on the interior support point is (μvv2)/(xv(1xv)) (\mu_v-v^2)/(x_v(1-x_v)) , where μv\mu_v is the selected maximizing first moment and xvx_v is the interior support point.

Definition (Lean source)
v :
extremalW1 v :
(maximizingRoot v - v ^ 2) / (extremalSupp v * (1 - extremalSupp v))
Causalean.Stat.MomentProblems.BoundedOutcomeEnvelope.extremalW1 · Causalean/Stat/Nonparametric/MomentProblems/BoundedOutcomeEnvelope/Attainment.lean:41
def extremalW2 reviewed
Causalean.Stat.MomentProblems.BoundedOutcomeEnvelope

For a real number vv, the weight on the support point 11 is (v2μvxv)/(1xv) (v^2-\mu_v x_v)/(1-x_v) , where μv\mu_v is the selected maximizing first moment and xvx_v is the interior support point.

Definition (Lean source)
v :
extremalW2 v :
(v ^ 2 - maximizingRoot v * extremalSupp v) / (1 - extremalSupp v)
Causalean.Stat.MomentProblems.BoundedOutcomeEnvelope.extremalW2 · Causalean/Stat/Nonparametric/MomentProblems/BoundedOutcomeEnvelope/Attainment.lean:49
def extremalW0 reviewed
Causalean.Stat.MomentProblems.BoundedOutcomeEnvelope

For a real number vv, the weight on the support point 00 is one minus the weights assigned to the interior support point and to 11.

Definition (Lean source)
v :
extremalW0 v :
Causalean.Stat.MomentProblems.BoundedOutcomeEnvelope.extremalW0 · Causalean/Stat/Nonparametric/MomentProblems/BoundedOutcomeEnvelope/Attainment.lean:57
def extremalMeasure reviewed
Causalean.Stat.MomentProblems.BoundedOutcomeEnvelope

For a real number vv, the extremal three-point measure places the nonnegative parts of the three prescribed weights at 00, at the associated interior support point, and at 11, respectively.

Definition (Lean source)
v :
extremalMeasure v :
ofReal (extremalW0 v) • Measure.dirac 0
+ ofReal (extremalW1 v) • Measure.dirac (extremalSupp v)
+ ofReal (extremalW2 v) • Measure.dirac 1
Causalean.Stat.MomentProblems.BoundedOutcomeEnvelope.extremalMeasure · Causalean/Stat/Nonparametric/MomentProblems/BoundedOutcomeEnvelope/Attainment.lean:63
theorem rho_envelope_attained reviewed
Causalean.Stat.MomentProblems.BoundedOutcomeEnvelope

Envelope attainment. For v strictly between 0 and 1, there is an admissible law whose residual is exactly ρ(v). Together with the upper bound this makes ρ(v) the supremum.

Formal statement
v :
hv0 :
0 < v
hv1 :
v < 1
∃ μ : Measure ℝ,
conclusion 1
conclusion 2
Proof (Lean source)
theorem rho_envelope_attained (v : ℝ) (hv0 : 0 < v) (hv1 : v < 1) : ∃ μ : Measure ℝ, Admissible v μ ∧ l2ResidualQuadratic μ = rhoEnvelope v := ⟨extremalMeasure v, extremalMeasure_admissible v hv0 hv1, extremalMeasure_residual v hv0 hv1⟩
11 supporting declarations (lemmas, instances)
Bounds 1 core · 5 supporting This file proves the upper-bound half of the bounded-outcome residual envelope. ★ l2ResidualQuadratic_le_rho

Bounded-outcome residual envelope upper bound r(μ) ≤ ρ(v)

This file proves the upper-bound half of the bounded-outcome residual envelope. For every admissible law μ (probability measure a.e. supported in [0,1] with ∫ y² ∂μ = v²), the residual l2ResidualQuadratic μ is at most rhoEnvelope v.

The bridge to the moment-level MomentAlgebra.momentResidual_le_envelope needs three measure-level facts about the raw moments m = ∫ y, q = ∫ y² = v², m₃ = ∫ y³, m₄ = ∫ y⁴:

* finiteMoment4_of_admissible — all four powers are integrable (bounded support + finite measure). * moment2_le_moment1q ≤ m, since y² ≤ y a.e. on [0,1] (monotone integral). * moment1_sq_le_moment2m² ≤ q, i.e. Var ≥ 0 (Cauchy–Schwarz for a probability measure). * crossMoment_nonneg0 ≤ crossMoment m q m₃ m₄, because that moment combination equals the integral ∫ y (1 − y) (y − xᵥ)² ∂μ of a function nonnegative on [0,1].

The degenerate case m² = q (a point mass) is handled directly: l2ResidualQuadratic μ = 0 (vanishing denominator), and ρ(v) > 0.

theorem l2ResidualQuadratic_le_rho reviewed
Causalean.Stat.MomentProblems.BoundedOutcomeEnvelope

Measure-level sharp upper bound. For v strictly between 0 and 1 and every admissible probability law μ on [0,1] with second moment , the closed-form residual is at most the envelope value: l2ResidualQuadratic μ ≤ rhoEnvelope v.

Formal statement
v :
μ :
h :
hv0 :
0 < v
hv1 :
v < 1
Proof (Lean source)
theorem l2ResidualQuadratic_le_rho (v : ℝ) (μ : Measure ℝ) (h : Admissible v μ) (hv0 : 0 < v) (hv1 : v < 1) : l2ResidualQuadratic μ ≤ rhoEnvelope v := by have hq0 : (0 : ℝ) < v ^ 2 := by positivity have hq1 : v ^ 2 < 1 := by nlinarith have hmom2 : rawMoment μ 2 = v ^ 2 := h.moment2_eq have hqm : rawMoment μ 2 ≤ rawMoment μ 1 := moment2_le_moment1 h have hmq_le : (rawMoment μ 1) ^ 2 ≤ rawMoment μ 2 := moment1_sq_le_moment2 h have hmem := maximizingRoot_mem v hv0 hv1 have hqu : v ^ 2 < maximizingRoot v := hmem.1 have hroot : envelopeQuartic (maximizingRoot v) (v ^ 2) = 0 := maximizingRoot_quartic v hv0 hv1 rcases eq_or_lt_of_le hmq_le with hdeg | hlt · -- degenerate point-mass case rw [l2ResidualQuadratic_eq_zero_of_degenerate hdeg] exact le_of_lt (rhoEnvelope_pos v hv0 hv1) · -- nondegenerate case: bridge to `momentResidual_le_envelope` have hu0 : 0 < maximizingRoot v := lt_trans hq0 hqu have huq : (maximizingRoot v) ^ 2 < v ^ 2 := by nlinarith [hmem.2] -- `hqm`, `hlt` in `v²`-coordinates: have hqm' : v ^ 2 ≤ rawMoment μ 1 := by rw [← hmom2]; exact hqm have hmq' : (rawMoment μ 1) ^ 2 < v ^ 2 := by rw [← hmom2]; exact hlt have hcross := crossMoment_nonneg h rw [hmom2] at hcross have hbound : momentResidual (rawMoment μ 1) (v ^ 2) (rawMoment μ 3) (rawMoment μ 4) ≤ momentEnvelope (maximizingRoot v) (v ^ 2) := momentResidual_le_envelope (rawMoment μ 1) (v ^ 2) (rawMoment μ 3) (rawMoment μ 4) (maximizingRoot v) hq0 hq1 hqm' hmq' hcross hqu huq hroot have hres : l2ResidualQuadratic μ = momentResidual (rawMoment μ 1) (v ^ 2) (rawMoment μ 3) (rawMoment μ 4) := by unfold l2ResidualQuadratic; rw [hmom2] rw [hres, rhoEnvelope] exact hbound
Causalean.Stat.MomentProblems.BoundedOutcomeEnvelope.l2ResidualQuadratic_le_rho · Causalean/Stat/Nonparametric/MomentProblems/BoundedOutcomeEnvelope/Bounds.lean:132 · uses Admissible , rhoEnvelope , l2ResidualQuadratic
5 supporting declarations (lemmas, instances)
Envelope 1 core · 0 supporting This file assembles the bounded-outcome moment problem. ★ rho_envelope_isLUB

Bounded-outcome residual envelope: IsLUB

This file assembles the bounded-outcome moment problem. For v ∈ (0,1), the measure-level residual envelope ρ(v) = rhoEnvelope v is the least upper bound of the residual l2ResidualQuadratic μ over all admissible laws μ (probability measures on [0,1] with second moment ), and it is attained by the extremal three-point law.

  • rho_envelope_isLUBIsLUB (residualSet v) (rhoEnvelope v).
  • rho_envelope_attained — the extremal law realizing ρ(v) (re-exported from Attainment).
  • interior_quartic_unique_root — the unique interior root of the FOC quartic (from QuarticRoot).

The IsLUB combines the upper bound l2ResidualQuadratic_le_rho (every admissible residual is ≤ ρ(v)) with attainment (ρ(v) itself is a realized residual), so any upper bound of the set is ≥ ρ(v).

theorem rho_envelope_isLUB reviewed
Causalean.Stat.MomentProblems.BoundedOutcomeEnvelope

Measure-level sharp envelope (IsLUB). For v strictly between 0 and 1, rhoEnvelope v is the least upper bound of the set of residuals l2ResidualQuadratic μ over admissible laws μ. Equivalently: the sup over all probability measures on [0,1] with ∫ y² ∂μ = v² of the residual of on span{1, y} equals the closed form ρ(v), and is attained (by the extremal three-point law).

Formal statement
v :
hv0 :
0 < v
hv1 :
v < 1
Proof (Lean source)
theorem rho_envelope_isLUB (v : ℝ) (hv0 : 0 < v) (hv1 : v < 1) : IsLUB (residualSet v) (rhoEnvelope v) := by constructor · -- `rhoEnvelope v` is an upper bound of the residual set rintro r ⟨μ, hμ, rfl⟩ exact l2ResidualQuadratic_le_rho v μ hμ hv0 hv1 · -- and it is the least such: any upper bound dominates the attained value intro b hb obtain ⟨μ, hμ, hres⟩ := rho_envelope_attained v hv0 hv1 exact hb ⟨μ, hμ, hres.symm⟩
Causalean.Stat.MomentProblems.BoundedOutcomeEnvelope.rho_envelope_isLUB · Causalean/Stat/Nonparametric/MomentProblems/BoundedOutcomeEnvelope/Envelope.lean:31 · uses residualSet , rhoEnvelope
Quartic­Root 1 core · 7 supporting This file proves the root facts used by BoundedOutcomeEnvelope.Defs to define the envelope maximizer. ★ interior_quartic_unique_root

Quartic root selecting the bounded-outcome residual envelope

This file proves the root facts used by BoundedOutcomeEnvelope.Defs to define the envelope maximizer. The tangent-strength envelope ρ(v) = momentEnvelope μᵥ (v²) is selected by the maximizing support parameter μᵥ, which is the unique root of the FOC quartic envelopeQuartic t q = t⁴ − 2t³ + 2q t² − 2q² t + q² inside the open interval (q, v) with q = v². This file proves that root exists and is unique.

The two endpoint sign facts are elementary polynomial identities:

  • envelopeQuartic q q = q² (1 − q)² > 0 (envelopeQuartic_pos_at_q);
  • envelopeQuartic v (v²) = −2 v³ (v − 1)² < 0 (envelopeQuartic_neg_at_v).

Because t ↦ envelopeQuartic t q is a continuous polynomial with q = v² < v, the intermediate value theorem produces a root in (q, v) (interior_quartic_exists). The derivative 4 t³ − 6 t² + 4 q t − 2 q² is strictly negative on (q, v), so the quartic is strictly antitone there; hence the root is unique (interior_quartic_unique_root).

These facts feed Defs.lean, which uses the (unique) root to define maximizingRoot and rhoEnvelope.

theorem interior_quartic_unique_root reviewed
Causalean.Stat.MomentProblems.BoundedOutcomeEnvelope

Unique interior root of the FOC quartic. For v strictly between 0 and 1 (write q = v²), there is a unique μᵥ ∈ (v², v) with envelopeQuartic μᵥ (v²) = 0. This μᵥ is the envelope maximizer selecting ρ(v). Existence is interior_quartic_exists; uniqueness follows from strict antitonicity (strictAntiOn_envelopeQuartic), whose InjOn forces two roots to coincide.

Formal statement
v :
hv0 :
0 < v
hv1 :
v < 1
∃! u,
conclusion 1
u ∈ Ioo (v ^ 2) v
conclusion 2
envelopeQuartic u (v ^ 2) = 0
Proof (Lean source)
theorem interior_quartic_unique_root (v : ℝ) (hv0 : 0 < v) (hv1 : v < 1) : ∃! u, u ∈ Ioo (v ^ 2) v ∧ envelopeQuartic u (v ^ 2) = 0 := by obtain ⟨u, hu, hfu⟩ := interior_quartic_exists v hv0 hv1 refine ⟨u, ⟨hu, hfu⟩, ?_⟩ rintro w ⟨hw, hfw⟩ have hinj := (strictAntiOn_envelopeQuartic v hv0 hv1).injOn exact hinj (Ioo_subset_Icc_self hw) (Ioo_subset_Icc_self hu) (show envelopeQuartic w (v ^ 2) = envelopeQuartic u (v ^ 2) by rw [hfw, hfu])
Causalean.Stat.MomentProblems.BoundedOutcomeEnvelope.interior_quartic_unique_root · Causalean/Stat/Nonparametric/MomentProblems/BoundedOutcomeEnvelope/QuarticRoot.lean:138 · uses envelopeQuartic
7 supporting declarations (lemmas, instances)